00100	.SEC EVALUATION AND IMPROVEMENTS
00200	
00300	.SS 7.1 Evaluation
00400		The primary aim in constructing this model  was  to  explore,
00500	develop,  test  and improve a theory having explanatory authenticity.
00600	To satisfy this aim the model must meet norms of internal consistency
00700	and  norms  of  external correspondence with observation. A secondary
00800	aim would involve pragmatic norms of application.  These aims are not
00900	unrelated but the first is more fundamental since useful applications
01000	require some degree of consistency and authenticity.
01100		As  emphasized  in  Chapter  2  a  model  in  the  form of an
01200	algorithm consists of a structure of functions  or  procedures  whose
01300	inner  workings  are  sufficient  to  reproduce  the outward symbolic
01400	behavior under consideration. The theory embodied  in  the  model  is
01500	revealed  in  the set of statements which illuminate  the connections
01600	betweeen input and output by  describing  how  the  structure  reacts
01700	under various circumstances.
01800		Theories have many  functions.  They  can  be  summarized  as
01900	follows [from Bunge?] .V
02000		(1)To systematize knowledge.
02100		(2)To  explain  facts  by  showing  how they are the entailed
02200		consequences of the systematizing hypotheses.
02300		(3)To increase knowledge by deriving new facts.
02400		(4)To enhance the testability of hypotheses by connecting
02500		them to observations.
02600		(5)To guide  research  by:                
02700			(a) posing fruitful problems
02800			(b) suggesting new data to gather
02900			(c) opening new lines of investigation
03000		(6)To map a portion of reality. .END
03100		It is a tall order for a  theory  to  fulfill  all  of  these
03200	functions.  In undeveloped fields we should be happy with even one of
03300	them.    Models  can  be  assigned  these  functions  when  they  are
03400	theoretical  in  type.   Our  model  was  intended primarily to serve
03500	functions (2) and (4), testable explanation.
03600		What  constitutes a satisfactory explanation has been treated
03700	in 2.1.  The "fit" or correspondence with phenomena as  indicated  by
03800	measurements and empirical tests indicate the degree of faithfuleness
03900	of the reproduction as described in Chapter 6.
04000		Decision  procedures for a consensus acceptability of a model
04100	sometimes depend not so much  on  truth,  an  elusive  state,  as  on
04200	whether  a  majority  of  the  relevant expert community believes the
04300	theory or model to approximate truth to some unknown  and  unknowable
04400	degree and be better than available nonoutlandish alternatives. Truth
04500	or  falsity cannot be proven with certainty but their presence can be
04600	assayed  by  some  sort  of  critical  assesment  and   deliberation.
04700	Validation  and  acceptance  is  ultimately  a  private experience. A
04800	theory or model may bring cognitive or pragmatic comfort, not because
04900	it  is  TRUE  but  because  it  represents  an  improvement  over its
05000	contending rivals.  Cognitive  comfort  is  a  type  of  intellectual
05100	satisfaction  while  pragmatic  comfort  accrues from applications to
05200	problems in order to make things work the way  humans  want  them  to
05300	work  optimally in practical contexts of action. For the pragmatist a
05400	model is a means to an end; for the theoretician an explanatory model
05500	is  an  end  in  itself. It is hoped that this paranoid model will be
05600	useful in least understanding one of the mysteries of human  conduct,
05700	paranoidness   and   the   paranoid  streak  which  renders  so  many
05800	susceptible  to  idelogical  delusions  in  which  others  appear  as
05900	oppressors.
06000		It is commonly stated that an infinite number of theories  or
06100	models  can  account  for  the  same  data  of  observation.  Without
06200	questioning whether "infinite" means indefinitely large or just  more
06300	than  one,  we must allow for rival explanations. For a rival to be a
06400	live and tenable option it should  be  truly  alternative  (not  just
06500	saying  the same thing in a different way), have an appreciable prior
06600	probability, and be testable.
06700		Although  I  hold  that  faithful  reproduction,  fidelity as
06800	measured by indistinguishability, is the proper and  major  test  for
06900	the  adequacy  of  symbolic  models, it would be a bonus if our model
07000	could satisfy function (3) , making possible  new  knowledge  through
07100	prediction. Like validation, the term "prediction" has many  meanings
07200	ranging  from  forecasts,  to  prognoses  to  prophecies  to  precise
07300	point-predictions such as an eclipse. To predict  is  to  announce  a
07400	fact  without  prior  knowledge of it. However one needs knowledge of
07500	the kind of fact expected, the conditions which produce  it  and  the
07600	circumstances   under   which  it  will  occur.  Accurate  long-range
07700	predictions characterize the ideal of celestial mechanics.  (But even
07800	astronomers,  with  their isolated and repetitive systems, have their
07900	troubles; Halley's comet in the 18th century arrived four days  later
08000	than  predicted  while in the 20th century it was eight days later!).
08100	Long-range predictions of individual  human  behavior  are  difficult
08200	because  (1)  sufficient  knowledge of initial conditions may require
08300	that we know the whole past history of a person-  something  not  yet
08400	achieved, (2) individuals do not remain
08500	isolated over the time stretch of the prediction  and  interact  with
08600	other  individuals of an unknown nature (3) life is a fortuitous flux
08700	of chance intersections of independent causal chains.  In  one  sense
08800	our  paranoid  model  makes moment-to-moment predictions and predicts
08900	true counterfactuals  about  behavior  in  a  psychiatric  interview.
09000	Predicting new kinds of events or properties, instead of kinds we are
09100	already familiar with, would represent a surplus bonus. It would give
09200	both clinicians and investigators something to look for.
09300		This novelty could arise in  two  ways.    First,  the  model
09400	might demonstrate a property of the paranoid mode hitherto unobserved
09500	clinically.    In principle this could come  about  because  the  I/O
09600	behavior  of  the  model  is  a  consequence  of  a  large  number of
09700	interacting hypotheses and assumptions chosen  initially  to  explain
09800	frequently observed phenomena.    When the elements of such a complex
09900	conjunction  interact  with  highly  variable  inputs  they  generate
10000	consequences  in  addition  to  those  they were designed to explain.
10100	Whether any of these consequences are significant  or  characteristic
10200	of the paranoid mode remains a subject for future study.
10300		It is also possible that a new property of  paranoia  may  be
10400	discovered  in  the  clinical  interview, although perhaps everything
10500	that can be said about it has been  said.  If  a  new  property  were
10600	found, a search for it might be conducted in the model's behavior. if
10700	successful, this would add to the model' acceptability.
10800		A  second novelty might arise in the behavior of the model in
10900	some new situation.   Since it is designed to simulate  communicative
11000	behavior in an interview situation, the `new' circumstance would have
11100	to involve some new type of linguistic interaction which the model is
11200	capable  of  responding  to. From its behavior one might then predict
11300	how paranoid patients would behave under similar circumstances.   The
11400	requisite  empirical  tests  and  measures  would  show the degree of
11500	correspondence between patient and model behaviors.
11600		This  possibility  is  of importance in considering therapies
11700	for patients tangled in the quandaries of the paranoid mode.    Since
11800	the  model  operates  at  a  symbol  processing  level  using natural
11900	language, it is at this level at which linguistic and semantic skills
12000	of  clinicians  can be applied. Language-based or semantic techniques
12100	do not seem very effective in the psychoses but they  are  useful  in
12200	states  of  lesser severity. A wide range of new semantic techniques,
12300	including extremes,  could  be  tried  first  on  the  model  without
12400	subjecting patients to blind experimentation.
12500		While our group has used the model to explore a theory and to
12600	study  psychiatric judgements, its potential use as a training device
12700	has not escaped our  attention.   Medical  students  and  psychiatric
12800	residents need `disposable' patients to practice on without jeopardy.
12900	The paranoid model can print out a trace of its inner  states  during
13000	and after an interview.   Whether the optimal  goal  of  interviewing
13100	(gathering  relevant  information without upsetting the patient), has
13200	been achieved, thus can be estimated.  A  beginning  interviewer  can
13300	practice  in private or with a supervisor present.  Many interviewers
13400	have reported that the model has  a  definite  effect  on  them.  The
13500	student  can  get  the  feel  of  the  paranoid  mode  long before he
13600	interviews an actual patient.   The effect of various interviewing
13700	styles can be studied and compared. 
13800	.SS Extra-evidential Support
13900		Besides  the function of evidence in evaluating models, there
14000	is is the role of extra-evidential support. This support derives from
14100	plausibility   arguments,   comparisons   with  competing  models  or
14200	theories, and coherence with other domain theories.
14300		A theoretical model is evaluated relative to viable  rival
14400	explanations. The model I have described stands as a candidate for  a
14500	consensus   explanation   of  paranoid  processes.   It  has  greater
14600	explanatory power than ,say, the "homosexual-conflict" theory because
14700	it covers a more comphrehensive range of facts. The expert forum will
14800	decide its ultimate status. 
14900	
15000	.SS Improvements
15100	
15200		As  the  validation  studies indicated , further work must be
15300	carried out to improve the model's linguistic  limitations.   A  more
15400	sophisticated   language   analyzer  is  being  developed  by  Horace
15500	Enea.(See Enea and Colby  [  ]).  So  many  special  cases  arise  in
15600	unrestricted  natural-language dialogues that a large number of rules
15700	must be written to cover them.
15800		Future versions of the model will  have  a  greatly  expanded
15900	data-base  or  "memory"  which  will  allow  it to answer a many more
16000	questions than the version  described  herein.  The  memory  must  be
16100	interfaced  with  the  language-analyzer in such a way that when some
16200	input expression is not well understood, the memory can still attempt
16300	an  appropriate answer. This capability is especially needed when the
16400	interviewer  refers  back  to  something  already  mentioned  in  the
16500	interview.
16600		Another  improvement  involves  the  ability  of the model to
16700	build up a model  of  the  interviewer  as  the  interview  proceeds.
16800	Information  from  this  submodel can then be used in contending with
16900	the interviewer who is believed to be malevolent. Instead  of  making
17000	rather primitive general remarks about the interviewer the model will
17100	be able to be much more specific in its comments.
17200		Finally the theory might be extended in two ways.  First  the
17300	model  could  be  made  more dynamic over time. The version described
17400	here changes only over the course of a single interview.  To  explore
17500	how  changes  can  be brought about through external input, the model
17600	must have capabilities for self-modification over longer  periods  of
17700	time  in  which it interacts with a number of interviewers. A further
17800	use of more dynamic models will be  to  explore  the  ontogenesis  of
17900	paranoidness, that is, how a system grows to be the way it is through
18000	socialization.
18100		A second extension of the theory would involve  the  addition
18200	of postulates to account for additional properties such as arrogance,
18300	contemptuousness, and grandeur which are often found associated  with
18400	malevolence  convictions.  Implementation  and  integration  of these
18500	postulates  in  the  model  would  complexify  it  to  increase   its
18600	comphrehensiveness and scope by extending its repertoire of ethogenic
18700	powers. In widening the scope of a simulation  one  thus  increases
18800	its  explanatory  power  in  covering  a  greater  range of facts but
18900	accuracy should remain a more fundamental desideratum than range.
19000		It should be clear by now that this simulation  of  paranoia,
19100	while  circumscribed in what it attempts to explain, covers a variety
19200	of facts. The explanation is local and restricted in that it accounts
19300	for  only  one type of symbol-processing resource.   Past attempts at
19400	grand scale explanations of all mental processes in all contexts have
19500	failed.   We  need to build up gradually one circumscribed and tested
19600	theory  or  model  at  a  time  so  that  the  field   can   progress
19700	incrementally and grounded knowledge accumulates.